Demographic shift

One of the most important things that will happen in the next 50 years is probably global population decline.

Most of the people I talk to think that the Earth is set for a population explosion, but that mode of thinking is several decades out of date. By about 2050 (in less than 40 years), given current trends continue, population will begin to decline. My guess is that it will occur sooner than that – perhaps 2040. So, as far as we can tell, marginal indigenous population collapses like we see happening already in countries like Japan, Korea, Germany, and Russia will be happening all over the globe in about a generation.

The following documentary called Demographic Winter is an introduction (from a specific point of view) to the general topic. It was published in 2008 as far as I can tell:

Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7
Part 8
Part 9
Part 10
Part 11

One thought on “Demographic shift

  1. Bruce Charlton

    I agree that population decline will occur – probably long before 2050 – but it will resemble the Black Death scenario rather than the population collapses of ageing first world nations.

    The world population is already far in excess of carrying capcity unless there was a tremendous increase in productivity – when we are actually seeing the opposite.

    Furthermore, the supply of geniuses – to get us off track with qualitative breakthroughs in technology – has apparently dried up. SciTech progress has peaked and is now declining.

    Bearing in mind international IQ differences abd the economic implications of these, and the fact that many third world populations have median ages in their teens while the first world have median ages in their forties, there is near-zero possibility of a graceful decline and high probability of the traditional patterns of massive death from disease, starvation and violence.

    The only thing in question is whether this will affect the whole world, or whether there will be any pockets that wall themselves off from it.

    Have a nice day!

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